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Prediction for CME (2025-10-13T06:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-10-13T06:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/41722/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 and to the NE in STEREO A COR2. The source is an M1.9 flare peaking at 2025-10-13T05:26Z from AR 14246 (N24W19). The flare is best seen in GOES SUVI 131 and eruption with dimming and opening field lines is best seen in GOES SUVI 195. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-10-17T09:32Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-10-16T05:46Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/41736/1
Model Inputs:
2025-10-13T06:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=20.0, Lat.=17.0, Speed=499.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2025-10-13T12:46Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-10-16T05:46Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =15.3 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.6
(kp)90=4
(kp)180=6

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-15T23:52Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-14T22:56Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-16T02:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 88.27 hour(s)
Difference: 27.77 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2025-10-13T17:16Z

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